Any seasoned baseball fan should have seen right through all the hype the last couple weeks about the Reds winning the NL Central by default. Admittedly, I definitely enjoyed the talk. But alas, one player does not a baseball team make, and while Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are two of the most impactful players in the game, the Cardinals potentially took a big step toward repeating their 90-win performance last year by signing free agent Carlos Beltran.
Consider: in somewhat of a down year last year, for him at least, Pujols turned in 5.1 WAR. It was enough for the Cardinals to win 90 games, grab the wildcard, and of course they went on to win the World Series (Pujols did go nuts in the playoffs, slugging .691 in 18 games). Carlos Beltran had 4.7 WAR last year (not helped by his defense at all either). In one fell swoop the Cardinals have nearly replaced Pujols’ production at barely more than half the cost!
Alright, so no one honestly thinks Beltran can fill Pujols’ shoes. But it’s a pretty good start, wouldn’t you say? And how about the fact that Adam Wainwright didn’t throw a single pitch last year.
Obviously there are many moving parts to any off-season, and adding and subtracting a few players’ WAR doesn’t get you an expected win total. Additionally, without looking into it I’m going to assume that a few Cardinals outperformed expectations last year, and one could expect some regression next year. But in a year where Albert Pujols walks, adding Carlson Beltran and Adam Wainwright is a good place to start.
Remember, the Cards and Brewers bettered the Reds by 11 and 17 wins, respectively. I love the Reds’ off-season moves so far, but I’m not putting them as favorites quite yet.
UPDATE: Of course, over at SB Nation, Rob Neyer has done what I just tried to do, only better.