Putting Mat Latos in Perspective

A pretty picture for your perusal:

The above chart is WAR by Age (note the colors assigned to each pitcher… I swear I had nothing to do with it… excel really is that smart).  The players included were selected for various reasons.  I mostly wanted to take the Reds new “ace” and compare him to: the incumbent, the one that wasn’t, the pipe dream, and the National League’s 23-year-old Cy Young winner.

To me, the most notable characteristic here is the grouping of Johnny Cueto, Gio Gonzalez, and David Price.  “Grouping” is used loosely here as no one would really equate those three.  Cueto had a faster start though has leveled off, and surely did not have the credentials to match Price’s coming out of the minors.  Gio had a slightly slower start though is coming on strong and may have marginally better peripherals than Cueto.

Then we have the other two.  Kershaw was included mostly as a comparison point.  I don’t think anyone can expect that type of performance from a pitcher in his early 20s.  It’s pretty impressive.  And then in the middle there’s Latos.  Clearly he had an earlier start than the first three, though his peak seasons don’t quite match what Price has done in each of the last two years, and unlike every other guy his this chart, he actually trended downward last year (honestly, though, I think it speaks to the quality of the pitchers shown that only one has a negative slope at any point… most players will experience this at some point).

There’s a perfectly good explanation for this that isn’t exactly top secret.  In 2010, Latos’ first full season, the Padres unexpectedly found themselves in the middle of playoff contention.  Where they had originally planned on limiting Latos to around 150 innings (rather standard for a youngster’s transition year into the majors) they instead relied on him down the stretch and he ended up eclipsing 180 IP.  He tired late in the year and experienced shoulder soreness which carried over into 2011.  He started 2011 on the disable list and struggled when he returned, opening the year 0-5.  However, as documented in the links provided yesterday, he bounced back considerably (partly due, it is believed, to his increased use of his slider, often referred to as his “out” pitch) and still turned in a VERY nice year for a 23-year-old.

The injury is slightly troubling, as nagging shoulder soreness can really put a damper on a promising young pitching career (Cueto and Chapman have had similar issues).  But Latos’ performance toward the end of 2011 is encouraging.

As much as I like to look at these numbers, it’s easy to get lost in them, overanalyze, and think that you have it all figured out.  There’s no predicting where each player’s WAR will end up next year.  But you have to be encouraged by Latos’ ahead-of-the-curve-edness.  Given the fact that many Reds fans had put a lot of focus toward Gio, and that Price was viewed as ideal but unrealistic, it can be interesting to see how the numbers really play out.  While All-Star caliber pitchers can get their starts at any age, we shouldn’t completely discount the fact that Latos is two years ahead of the other three.  It leaves a lot of room for growth, and the Reds have four years to watch it play out.