On Saturday the Reds traded away Edinson Volquez and prospects Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, and Brad Boxberger to the San Diego Padres for starting pitcher Mat Latos. The potential deal Reds fans have been hearing about all off-season is finally here. Now, what to make of it?
I’ve now read numerous takes on the deal and the general consensus is: Reds gave up a lot; Latos could be very good.
These seem somewhat conflicting, which has been slightly frustrating for this Reds fan. Though I may also point out, this is the biggest trade my team has been a part of since I’ve been fully plugged into the world of twitter and various other fast-paced media. Because of this, I imagine that there are more opinions than ever, and added incentive to stand out and be noticed. Therefore it is our job, as consumers of this media, to wade through it all and make some sense of it.
First, Mat Latos. Redleg Nation, the Reds representative in ESPN’s SweetSpot Network, has put together a “Meet Mat Latos” post. It does a very thorough job profiling his career to this point. Of note: Latos will only be 24 next year, and has 4 years of team control remaining (if you have questions about what this means, the RN post includes a primer on arbitration and what happens to a player before he hits free agency).
Latos is not without risk. I’ve read things about his injury history and his makeup. Latos tired down the stretch in 2010 and started 2011 on the disabled list. However, as the RN post notes, he bounced back in the second half. One would hope that his big frame leaves him less susceptible to injury than the average pitcher. I haven’t read too many specifics on the personality concerns, other than a possible lack of maturity when he gets behind in the game. He also appears to have a large number of tattoos.
Obviously any pitcher has the potential to flame out. However, Fangraphs founder Dave Cameron gives his take here, where he is high on Latos and the Reds’ move. There is a table near the top that groups Latos in with a pretty impressive bunch. His peripherals (which generally refers to K rates, BB rates, and HR rates) are top notch, which bodes well for his move from “cavernous” Petco Park to the GABP. As has been noted numerous places, his HR rate was actually higher at Petco than it was on the road, and the ERA and FIP differences are marginal (FIP refers to Fielding Independent Pitching, which attempts to eliminate factors that are beyond the pitcher’s control from the evaluation of his performance). As this article from Fangraphs’ fantasy baseball-minded arm points out, pitching in various away ballparks and pitching every home game at GABP is not the same thing. However, I think Latos gives us as much reason as possible to be optimistic about the transition.
Keith Law, ESPN’s prospect guru and unrestrained king of snark, also likes the deal (sorry, Insiders only). He opens with:
The Cincinnati Reds give up a lot of future value, but nearly all of it surplus value for their club, in exchange for a legitimate front-of-the-rotation starter. The San Diego Padres swap quality for quantity in a building move that helps them but doesn’t entirely add up for me.
He notes what those outside the situation seem to be reticent to admit: that while 4 players seem like a lot, each isn’t without limitation. To me, Alonso is the surest bet to contribute significantly, as he’s had successful major league experience. However, he is not likely to match his 2010 performance moving forward, and in my opinion the Reds did exactly what they should have done (given an Alonso deal was to be done) and struck while the iron was hot. Grandal probably has the highest ceiling of the group, but he is still a year or two away, and there are question marks about his defense and whether he can continue catching.
The most negative comments made on the trade came from Buster Olney’s twitter feed:
First rival evaluator I spoke with LOVES the trade for the Padres: “San Diego made an absolute killing with that deal.”
E-mail from second rival evaluator (and don’t kill the messenger): “Overall big win for Padres and huge gamble for Reds.”
Observation of third rival evaluator: “The only way I’m making that trade for Latos is if he has [perfect] mound makeup. And he doesn’t.”
4th scout on Latos deal: Possible strong No. 2 starter, with significant risk. This evaluator says CIN gave up 3 of their top 5 prospects.
More of an FYI than anything else… depends on how much you trust the POV of talent scouts. However, 3 out of top 5 prospects is a bit of a stretch. According to Baseball America the trio was #3, #4, and #10 in the organization. Also feel free to check out SB Nation for a slightly negative slant on the move, including Rob Neyer’s non-endorsement (which makes me sad).
In conclusion, I will leave you with this: yesterday I was thinking through what I wanted to write in a Mat Latos piece. Well, when I read this Redleg Nation post I realized I was too late. It gives an excellent overview for what the trade could mean for the upcoming season. (By the way, I highly recommend RN for any Reds fan.)
I would like to follow this up with a deeper look at some of the numbers, so be on the lookout in the next several days.