Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has put together a list of his 10 best transactions of the winter. Considering the amount of activity coming from the Reds’ front office I was curious to see what he came up with. Right off the bat I can tell you that the Sean Marshall deal won’t be on there, and that the Ryan Madson deal will. The Latos trade was kind of a long shot, though I think if Reds fans take a moment to be really honest with themselves, it might make this a little easier to swallow:
#3 – San Diego Padres Acquire Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal, Edinson Volquez, and Brad Boxberger for Mat Latos
The Reds needed to make a deal like this, but I love this trade for the Padres. Alonso might not have star potential, but as a left-handed hitter with opposite field power, he should be able to hit well enough in Petco to be a useful piece, and there’s value in having six years of a cost controlled Wally Joyner hanging around. Grandal is the real key to this deal, though, as a switch-hitting catcher with power and patience who could easily be more valuable than Latos over the next six years by himself. Toss in a terrific buy-low arm in Edinson Volquez, who is a perfect fit for Petco, and a good young bullpen arm in Boxberger, and the Padres restocked their talent base in a hurry without drastically making their team worse for 2012. In fact, if Alonso and Volquez perform as expected, the team could actually be better than they would have been with Latos and some random first baseman. Toss in the long term value, and this deal was just a huge win for San Diego.
A couple things.
Cameron throws us a bone in the beginning, admitting that yes, the Reds needed to make this deal. What immediately follows, however, left me kneeling on the mat.
I can’t figure out for the life of me what people are seeing in Volquez. Every single commentary on the trade sees him as a high upside piece. I mean, maybe Reds fans are being a little reactionary, but it irks me a little that he’s viewed as more than a throw in.
As most pro-Padre analyses have done, Cameron highlights Alonso’s and especially Grandal’s upside, while glossing over Latos. I know Latos has some risk, but so do the youngsters (wait a minute, Alonso is how old?). I was just reading Rotoworld’s top 100 prospects (might be subscriber only – sorry), which notes that Grandal is “already 23 years old and doesn’t have much projection left” and “could be an above-average regular”. Yes, I cherry-picked a little, and it’s one source’s opinion, but let’s not get carried away. He’s no Meso (ranked 14th to Grandal’s 45th) and all reports seem to point to Grandal being less likely to stick at catcher.
I don’t mean to knock Grandal here, and I realize I’m getting a little defensive. But hey, that’s what fans are supposed to do. Ultimately, I admit that Cameron’s take is convincing, and he may well be right. But I do think he overstates it a bit.
Anyhow, you should go read the whole thing, but before I quit here I will reveal that (***SPOILER ALERT***) Madson came in at #8, and the yet-to-be-completed Roy Oswalt signing clocks in at #4. Cameron seems to be optimistic on everyone with an injury history on this list, and Oswalt is no exception. As you’ve probably heard, the Reds have been popping up more and more in Oswalt speculation, and though I know it’d be a gamble (I’m as big a Homer Bailey fan as anyone), I can’t help but get excited over the possibility.